Betting with Bearman: A Trend to Watch After Thunder Take Game 1

Thunder Rally to Go Up 1-0 in West, Recent History Suggests It Might Be Over

It didn’t look pretty early for Thunder (-7.5) backers last night as the Timberwolves got up early and led at the break. But a huge 2nd half not only gave the Thunder the win, but also the easy cover. So what does this mean heading to Game 2? S

Updated Series Price

Thunder -650, Timberwolves +475

Are you thinking of jumping on the Timberwolves at +475? Recent history suggests that is not the move. From 2019-24, the team that won game one also won game 2 to take a 2-0 series lead. The Western Conference Finals have just not been competitive.

In fact, it's been since 2016 in which the team that won game 1 didn't win the series in the West. Ok, that's the last six years, what about deeper? Sure thing. All-time, teams going up 1-0 in the Best-of-7 Conference Finals have won the series 78% of the time and it’s 82% if the team opened 1-0 at home. I wouldn’t be jumping on the Timberwolves so fast.

But what about Game 2 ATS, where the Timberwolves are +7.5? Well, that’s a much different case as the Game 1 loser has covered four out of the last 6. All but the Mavericks lost outright, but four of them covered. So you are saying there’s a chance? Well, to cover game 2, but I wouldn’t go moneyline just yet.

Western Conference Finals, Game 2

'24 Mavericks, up 1-0, +6.5, won by 1 (Underdog won outright)
'23 Nuggets, up 1-0, -5.5, won by 5 (Underdog covered)
'22: Warriors, up 1-0, -6, won by 9 (Favorite covered)
'21: Suns up 1-0, -4.5, won by 1 (Underdog covered)
'20: Lakers up 1-0, -7.5, won by 2 (Underdog covered)
'19: Warriors up 1-0, -7, won by 3 (Underdog covered)

Eastern Conference Finals Tip Off Tonight at MSG

Pacers at Knicks (-4.5, 222.5), Pacers +150, Knicks -180

I gave my thoughts on taking the Pacers in six in Monday’s newsletter at +425. They have been outstanding on the road in the postseason and can win this series.

What about game 1? Let’s make this simple. If you like the Pacers to cover the +4.5, take them outright at +150. Of their 8 postseason wins this year, they have covered in 7 of them, including the last 5 as an underdog. The OVER has come through in four of those five as a 'dog too. The Knicks have covered in all 8 of their postseason wins, so expect them to cover 4.5 if they win.

I think the Pacers are very live tonight. They are 4-1 on the road in the postseason and have been playing as well as anyone. If looking for a SGP, I would go with Pacers ML, Over and a player prop of your choice. We have a prop on this game in a section below.

Data on Game One, Courtesy of BetMGM

• 56% of Bets and 57% of Handle on the Pacers +4.5

• 59% of Bets and 71% of Handle on Over 222.5

• 66% of Bets and 61% of Handle on Pacers +150

Trend to Watch

While everyone watches the Mets fade down the standings and the Phillies take over the NL East lead, don’t forget about those pesky Braves. Atlanta, after a horrific 0-7 start, have won 19 of their last 30 games. A $100 bet on them every night over those 30 games would have netted you $272. Something to monitor as we enter the summer.

Prop of the Day

This one with an assist from @kylesoppePFN:

Want more? Subscribe now!