Betting with Bearman: Thunder are the Favorite to Win the NBA Title and Books are Good With That

And we are off! The first-ever “Betting with Bearman” newsletter, a long time coming. For over two decades, both at ESPN and PFSN, I have been involved in the betting space, as a content creator, writer, editor, manager and worked in the business of betting with various sportsbook partners.

In this newsletter, I want to share those experiences with you, the reader, in hopes of creating a betting community, where everyone comes away with enough knowledge and strategies to become a more rounded sports bettor.

If you follow along, apply the lessons, and stay consistent, you’ll feel the ROI over the long term — not because I gave you a “can’t-miss” pick, but because you became a sharper bettor.

Enjoy!

Thunder are the Favorite to Win the NBA Title and Books are Good With That

Thunder (-135) are Best Scenario for Sportsbooks

Before Sunday’s Game 7 in Oklahoma City, despite 52% of the money being on the Thunder, it was noted by BetMGM’s John Ewing that a Thunder win would be great for the MGM book.

Why is that? Simply put, the Thunder winning the NBA title is the least liability at MGM and other sportsbooks, while a Nuggets NBA title would’ve been the worst possible outcome. Two birds, one stone. The result of the individual games may not have been great, but seeing the forest through the trees, the Nuggets not winning the NBA title was a good outcome.

“BetMGM is cheering for the Thunder to win the NBA Championship heading into the Conference Finals. OKC is the best result for the sportsbook on the futures market.” - Christian Cipollino, Trading Manager, BetMGM

Now the conference finals are set and here are the updated odds to win the NBA title, with the Thunder (-135) the best case scenario. Ironically, they are also the only division champion left in a wild NBA and NHL postseason.

Odds to Win the NBA Title

Thunder -175
Knicks +450
Timberwolves +600
Pacers +800

Series prices:
Thunder (-330), Timberwolves (+265)
Knicks (-145) Pacers (+125)

Ok, so where is the value here? For starters, if you are in the boat that the Thunder are going to win it all, you would have better odds taking them to win this series at -330 and assuming they are in the same neighborhood of -330 again vs Knicks/Pacers winner, roll it over as that would pay -145, cheaper than the -165 price.

Of course, it could be higher than -330, so that is a gamble you’d have to take. You could also dabble into the exact finals result here, which has the Thunder beating the Knicks at +195 or beating the Pacers at +245. More risky but also better than -145. They are the best team, so I don’t mind these plays. Tons of ways to play this which makes it all more fun!

If looking for a longer price of the remaining three, I think you are getting very good value on the Pacers at +800. Sure, they have to go on the road to a hostile MSG and then play a good West team but that doesn’t bother me and here’s why: Indiana has arguably looked the best of any team in the 16-team field so far, dismantling both the Bucks and top-seeded Cleveland in 5 games.

Beating one of the best players in the game in Giannis Antetokounmpo and one of the top two teams all season (Cavs) is no small feat. They went 4-1 on the road in those two series, so going to MSG doesn't bother me. Of all the teams left, the Pacers know exactly who they are and are excelling at it.

Tyrese Haliburton is one of the better distributors in the sport, but it doesn't mean much if Indiana can't scheme their role players into comfort zones. This postseason, Indiana is pacing the postseason with a 48.6% conversion rate on corner triples -- for reference, Milwaukee's 43.8% led the league during the regular season.

I know it won’t be the most popular pick, hence the +800 odds, but this NBA postseason is as wide open as any in recent times. Only four teams left, so why not sprinkle the hottest team, who happens to have the longest odds? Of the other three teams, only the Thunder have even made a Finals appearance this century and none of these teams have won a title in the last 50 years.

Thunder (-7.5) Big Favorite in Western Conference Finals Game 1 vs. Rested T-Wolves

Game one of the West Finals isn’t until Tuesday, but with no NBA or NHL postseason game tonight, we are going to jump ahead to Tuesday. We couldn’t have the first newsletter go out without a postseason write up, right?

Timberwolves at Thunder (-7.5, 215.5)

As you will see in this newsletter and the ones that follow, there are many different ways to attack a game beyond just the spread and total. We have player props, team props, team totals and tons to choose from.

Julius Randle is one of the main reasons the Timberwolves have made it this far and will play a factor in the series outcome. He didn't play in three of four meetings with the Thunder this regular season, which also means the Thunder have not seen him. But in his lone appearance (New Year's Eve), the shot distribution was interesting for both he and Anthony Edwards.

They weren't interested in attacking. In that contest, 41.7% of Randle's shots and 16.7% of Edwards' came inside of 10 feet. Randle's rate for the regular season as a whole was 51.5% and is up to 55.6% during his impressive playoff run. As for Ant-Man, 33.3% during the regular season and 47.9% this postseason.

In the playoffs, this duo is averaging 22.2 points on 56.9% shooting from inside of 10-feet. Minnesota generally operates at a slower pace and will likely look to keep the possession count in check to nullify their talent disadvantage in this series, a style of play that the tired Thunder figure to be fine with in the opener at the very least as they come off a taxing seven-game series with the Nuggets.

In the final three games against the Warriors in Round 2, a situation that was the exact opposite in that Minnesota had the talent advantage (no Steph Curry for Warriors) and was facing a lesser defense, the 'Wolves failed to clear 21 points in three quarters. Asking them to reach triple digits in the first game of this series feels like a tall order given what we've seen this postseason and the implied line gives us a few points of breathing room.

Our play for Game 1: Timberwolves team total under 103.5 points!

The Conference Finals are Also Set in NHL

After the Panthers dismantled the Leafs in yet another Toronto Game 7 loss, the East Finals are set with the Panthers returning to the Eastern Conference Finals for the third straight year, where they face a Hurricanes team they faced in 2023. The West Finals matchup was decided on Saturday with the Stars saying bye to the Presidents’ Trophy winner Winnipeg Jets, setting up a rematch with last year’s Western Conference champion Edmonton Oilers.

Odds to Win the NHL Title
Panthers +230
Oilers +265
Stars +290
Hurricanes +320

Series prices:
Panthers (-125), Hurricanes (+105)
Oilers (-110), Stars (-110)

How I am playing it: I’ve had a Panthers (+1000) ticket from the beginning, so I am not changing my direction there. I also picked the Panthers-Oilers rematch before the playoff started. I still like it and would play that exact matchup at +220 at FanDuel.

Game 2 for Paige Bueckers Tonight
The WNBA star power is growing by the second. We all saw the Caitlin Clark - Angel Reese fiasco over the weekend and the WNBA’s newest star goes tonight. It was a pedestrian debut for Bueckers last Friday as she had 10 points and 7 boards.

We aren’t ready to go all-in yet on Bueckers player props, but it’s worth noting that in the small sample size of the WNBA season, the favorites have covered in six of eight games and the five of the eight have gone over the total. Yes, we will be tracking this for you all summer long!

Trend to Watch

We are going to use this section in every newsletter to find a betting trend that we love and can use to make your betting decisions easier. With PFSN’s Kyle Soppe on my team, these will be endless.

But day one comes from former colleague Ben Fawkes, who notes that this is the first time in the now 5 Conference Finals appearances since the franchise moved to Oklahoma City, in which the Thunder are favored. They were an underdog in 2011 (lost), 2012 (won), 2014 (lost) and 2016 (lost). Will being a favorite turn the tide from the 1-3 conference finals record since moving to OKC?

Because it’s our first newsletter, I am being festive and will give a second one! The usually predictable NBA has been anything but in recent years with this season being just the latest example. For a RECORD 7th straight season, the NBA will crown a 7th different champion. The days of the repeats and 3-peats (sorry Pat Riley, guess I owe you $1) are long behind us.

Of the previous six champions, only the Celtics last season were the favorite entering the postseason. The Thunder entered and remain the favorite this postseason. From 2019-23, a non-betting favorite won the NBA title. Food for thought.

Play of the Day

With no NBA or NHL playoffs tonight and nothing jumping out on the MLB front, we are going to give an NBA future. I noted above how I think the Pacers are live to win the entire thing at +800, so why not play them vs. the Knicks?

They have been an outstanding road team in the postseason, going 4-1, including 3-0 in Cleveland, so I think they will steal one in NYC. We are going to go Pacers in 6 at +425.

Recapping the Weekend

We already noted above how happy the books were that the Thunder knocked off the Nuggets. What else happened this weekend?

• Scottie Scheffler, who opened as the +450 favorite, took home his 3rd major championship. For the first two days of the event, it was 500-1 longshot Jhonattan Vegas who had the lead. Not that the books were shaking in their boots, but SuperBookNV did have two small wagers on him. From @SuperBookNV VP of Risk Jeff Sherman (@golfodds): "We have two pre-tournament tickets on Vegas, for $5 each at 500/1. There are zero tickets on Fitzpatrick, who closed pre-tournament at 250/1."

• Scheffler winning at +450 pre-tourney odds was the shortest odds to win any major since Tiger Woods (+200) at the U.S. Open in 2008 per Action Network’s Evan Abrams. I was at that event, which remains one of the top events I have ever witnessed.

• The Edmonton Oilers (+800) and Florida Panthers (+1000) were the top favorites to win the Stanley Cup entering the 2024-25 season and are two of the last four remaining. Neither were the favorites entering the postseason after both finishing as division 3 seeds. The Colorado Avalanche (+700) were the favorites, but were eliminated in the first round.

• There weren’t any odds posted, but it's worth noting that Liberty knocked off No. 1 overall seed Texas A&M in the NCAA Softball Regionals. It’s the first time in the 20-year history of the current format that the top-seed did not advance. I’d imagine that would’ve paid nicely if on the board (see: Purdue losing to Fairleigh Dickenson).

• Journalism, a 6-5 post time favorite, to win the Preakness Stakes, did just that, taking home the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown. This after falling just short and finishing 2nd in the Kentucky Derby earlier this month. We weren’t too far from a legit shot at a Triple Crown watch at the Belmont, but alas.

What Is On Deck This Weekend?

No rest for Scottie Scheffler and the PGA Tour. The PGA Championship winner tees it up in his home state of Texas, again at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Not surprisingly, he’s a huge favorite this week at +250, numbers we haven’t seen often:

• Using Sportsoddshistory.com, saw that Scottie was a +250 favorite in Phoenix earlier this year, but these are extremely rare. Jon Rahm was sub 300 to win in Mexico in 2023 and before that, it’s the Tiger era. It’s hard to not have Scottie, but my advice has been and will continue to be: wait for him to maybe get a slow start Thursday and bet him live and longer odds. I did that at the PGA Championship and cashed.

• With a lot of the stars sitting out after the Tour’s 2nd major, we have Daniel Berger (+2000), Hideki Matsuyama (+2200), Tommy Fleetwood (+2200) and Texas-local Jordan Spieth (+2500) next on the odds board.

• Considering Berger hasn’t won since back surgery, Fleetwood has never won on the Tour (still) and you can’t trust Spieth to play 72 good holes, you are looking at Hideki to challenge or throwing a long-shot dart on the board.

• Early in the week, I am looking at a high finish for Spieth (top 5/10 markets) but not outright and spying Aaron Rai and Texas-native Michael Kim as players I likely will have on my card. A full write up coming Wednesday!

• French Open and Indy 500 are coming up. More on those later in the week!

Betting Expert Tip of the Week

Filter Through the Noise
Writer’s note: The plan in this newsletter is to have one of my betting tips every week. “Filtering through the noise” is the most underrated part of sports betting and the underlying concept of the newsletter. No better tip to lead with.

Everyone has their system or their way of attacking the lines. I am more of an aggregator of information, meaning I gather all the info I can in order to make the best decision. With that comes a lot of noise to filter through, which is the first step in trying to decide what to use and what not to use.

There is no perfect science, but historical betting stats that go too far back (different coaches/players) or small sample sizes are usually just noise. Settle on relevant stats or trends that help you and trusted sources that make you smarter. That will help you in the long run. Remember, all I can do is give you the best information and content I have. Ultimately, you have to decide what you want to do with that.

Oh no, That Did NOT Just Happen !

This section will be reserved for our favorite Bad Beats, backdoor covers or general nonsense we saw. If you see one, send me a DM at @davidbearmanPFN on Twitter. I can’t possibly see them all.

On Sunday morning, I gave out Jon Rahm in the “winner without Scheffler” market (+450), which means “finish 2nd”. Rahm jumped into a tie of the lead on the back 9 and we had a 2 shot lead on the rest of the field. For a brief moment, I was kicking myself for not taking the +2200 outright that morning that I had mentioned on Twitter.

Then the wheels came off on the final three holes and it didn’t cash. But worse than that, he fell from 2nd place all the way to T-8, which means if you held a top-5 Rahm ticket, you made this section on day one. Woof.

Premium Newsletter Coming Wednesday (What to Expect)

• Thoughts and Picks on Wednesday’s main action

• Full write ups and picks on upcoming events

• NFL or CFB Future of the Week to Get ahead of

• Full suite of nuggets

Don’t miss out! I’m offering a one-time only lifetime price of $9/month or $99/year for my first 250 premium subscribers. You’ll get three newsletters just like this per week, first access to the community we’re building together, and honestly just so much more.

As you get to know me, you’ll learn that I never say ‘this is a lock’. But you can bet on this: The price will never be lower — so lock in your commitment to better Betting With Bearman today. -David