Why You Should Not Chase the Teams Down 3-1

Happy Wednesday! All the nights won’t go like last night, but we were very pleased with the column going 3-1 with wins in the NBA, NHL and MLB. All the picks were isolated portions of each game, which is where “Betting with Bearman” does the deep research to look for those edges to exploit. To borrow a line from my colleague and friend Kyle Soppe, “Consistently identify value and you’ll profit over the long term”. That is what this newsletter is about. Identifying value and finding edges. Anyone can pick a side or total, but are you digging deep for a team total or first five inning prop?

MLB: Twins/Rays first five u3.5 💰
NHL: Stars team total u2.5 💰
NBA: Hart u4.5 assists 💰
WNBA: Cloud 20.5 P + A ❌

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Make sure to catch me on VSiN every Tuesday night at 10:15 ET and Wednesday’s at 12:30p ET.

Today we have more NBA and MLB, an NFL future to bet and a full PGA Tour card for the Signature Event at Muirfield Village. Happy betting!

NBA Finals and Stanley Cup Final Virtually Set, Stay Away from Chasing

I saw a lot of informal polls on Twitter/X last night asking which team down 3-1 in NBA or NHL playoffs are you backing? The simple answer from me: none of them. The Knicks would seem to have the best path, having been in all 4 games and getting two of the next three at home, but remember, they lost both games at home to the Pacers already. The other three have barely shown life in their series, with Minnesota having one good game, the Stars having one good period and the Hurricanes having one lead in the entire series vs. the Panthers.

Data behind a possible comeback doesn’t help the cause either as only four teams in the NBA’s semifinal round have ever rallied from down 3-1 (13 teams overall) and while it has happened more often in the NHL (32 times), it has only happened once in the Conference Final round (2000 Devils over Flyers).

Updated Series Odds and Futures Markets

NBA
Thunder -4000, Timberwolves +1700
Pacers -600, Knicks +450

Odds to Win NBA Title
Thunder -380
Pacers +425
Knicks +2500
Timberwolves +4500

NHL
Panthers -1000, Hurricanes +650
Oilers -1000, Stars +650

Odds to Win NHL Title
Oilers +105
Panthers +110
Stars +1700
Hurricanes +1800

Game 5 Timberwolves at Thunder (-8.5, 219.5)

Just because you aren’t betting a team down 3-1 to win series doesn’t mean you can’t bet the games! In Tuesday’s newsletter, we covered why you wouldn’t lay points with the Thunder on the road (0-7 ATS) but at home, they are 6-2 ATS, good for a 3.8 unit return, best of any team this playoff season. A case can be made that the series is over and the Thunder will run away with it. However 8.5 points is a lot to bank on the Wolves not showing up. Instead, we isolate the prop market.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was the best player in the league this regular season and has cleared 30 points in three of four games against the ‘Wolves in this series, but does he deserve to be this heavy of a favorite to lead the game in scoring (-170) given the potential of Jaylen Williams (over 25 points on over 50% shooting in two of the past three games) and the desperation of Minnesota?

We agree he should be favored, but the pricing seems to be off and that is what we are in the business of doing – consistently identify value and you’ll profit over the long term. Julius Randle has had his moments this postseason, but after what we saw on Monday night and what history has taught us, this profiles as an Anthony Edwards game. (Chart below)

A franchise player seeing his usage spike at the most critical time is hardly news, so let’s take a look at the most recent data point – Game 4. Edwards recorded 18 drives to Randle’s two, a level of aggression that should be set to return tonight (Games 1-4: 33-to-28 drive edge over Randle). He was decisive, trimming his average touch time by 18.8% and that’s the version we need to cash this ticket.

And if he gets stuck pounding the ball? That’s OK. He’s shooting 48.8% from the field when firing after taking 3+ dribbles in this series, up from his 44.3% rate during the regular season and way up from the 41.2% he put on the board through the first two rounds of this postseason.

Also love that Edwards is script proof in this spot. If Minnesota falls behind early, he’s more likely to assume the superhero role and mount a comeback and if the ‘Wolves jump out to a reasonable lead, it’s likely because he’s playing at a high level.

SGA’s scoring floor is much higher than that of Edwards, it would be difficult to argue otherwise, but in terms of ceiling, Edwards’ potential is on par with the MVP and is getting +250 at DraftKings. Edwards to be Game 5 leading scorer at +250.

Per BetMGM, 64% of Bets and 66% of Handle are on Timberwolves +8.5 and 86% of Bets and 95% of Handle are on the over 219.5.

Panthers Hit Road in Attempt to Finish Off Hurricanes

Game 5 Panthers (-125) at Hurricanes (+105), 5.5

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