Wait ... The Dodgers Are a Home Underdog?? How to Play It

Happy Fri-yay everyone! Part of me wanted to fill this newsletter today with betting lines for the Elementary School Field Day I am going to in a few hours, but you wouldn’t be able to bet on them, so what fun is that? :).

We’ve reached the last weekend in May and all but one team is set for the NBA and NHL finals. The Stanley Cup Final rematch is set as predicted by Betting with Bearman and the Oklahoma City Thunder await their opponent.

But that’s not all, as the Road to Omaha gets underway, we have a full weekend of MLB games and a PGA Tour Signature Event (preview in Wednesday’s column).

Quick request: You know we're building something special, but I do need your help as one of our Founders. Will you tell just one friend? Forward this, show them the site, tweet it out, however you want. Every bit helps.

Happy Betting!
-David

Knicks Stay Alive, Force Game 6

The New York Knickerbockers did us a favor last night, winning game 5. Readers of this two-week old column should remember that we gave out Pacers in 6 as our first-ever Play of the Day in the debut column last week. We are there in game 6, so let’s get it done Pacers! The game is not until Saturday, but we are going to give you a pick early since there is no column tomorrow. Check back on Twitter for data on the game tomorrow.

Game 6: Knicks at Pacers (-4, 218.5)

The Knicks defended The Garden and are now faced with trying to extend the series on the road. If they are going to do it, it’s likely going to be on the back of Jalen Brunson, so outright fading him in the props market is dangerous, understanding that star players often enter these games with an increased level of aggression (afterall, we just saw him score 14 points in the first period last night). That said, I think there’s a path to leverage his mindset against the betting board as we sit here a day away from a do-or-die situation.

When comparing his shooting data to what he put on paper last round against Boston, the rate of open looks from distance has declined. He’s still attempting north of seven triples per game, but the Pacers have been better than the Celtics when it comes to either getting a hand up or, more importantly for this angle, chasing him off the line all together.

Brunson is a good shooter, but that’s not the lifeblood of his productivity on the offensive side of the ball. He’s developed a pretty good feel as to how Indiana is defending him and that has resulted in his drives being far more profitable than they were last round. For him.

His pass rate on those takes to the hoops has plummeted – he’s attacking with one reason and one reason only. To score. Be it via free throw or tough leaner, he wants the fate of this team on his shoulders and he wants this game decided by his strength.

This regular season, he had a higher FG% from inside of five feet than Ja Morant, shot better from the 5-9 foot window than MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and was more accurate from 10-14 feet than Luka Doncic. Great players solve puzzles and he’s getting there. After struggling in Game 3 (5-of-13 on 2’s, 38.5%), Brunson is 15-of-25 (60%) on such attempts since. I’m not saying he alone is enough to force a Game 7, but I do think we get an ultra aggressive version in this spot and that means 2PA and FTA in bulk, thus my backing of him to make under 2.5 triples (-120, DraftKings).

For those who like more surface level analysis, he’s been a 32.6% shooter from distance over his past six road games (and that’s inflated by Game 1 in Boston, remove that and we are talking 26.5%) compared to 40.8% in his past six home games. I don’t think he clears seven three point attempts and if you tell me that’s the case for any player not named Steph Curry garnering this level of defensive attention, my math is going to land him with fewer than three 3PM.

Panthers-Oilers Rematch is Set

As predicted in this very column 11 days ago (and before the postseason started on Twitter), the Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers will have a rematch for Lord Stanley’s Cup. We will have a complete series preview and game picks next week but here is some context around Stanley Cup Final rematches, of which this is just the 5th all-time.

The four previous Cup Final rematches saw two 2-0 sweeps and two 1-1 splits. Here's a full look at the results of each championship rematch:

• Detroit Red Wings vs. Pittsburgh Penguins: Detroit won 2008 Cup Final in six games, Pittsburgh won in 2009 Cup Final in seven games

• New York Islanders vs. Edmonton Oilers: New York won 1983 Cup Final in four games, Edmonton won 1984 Cup Final in five games

• Montreal Canadiens vs. Boston Bruins: Montreal won 1977 Cup Final in four games and 1978 Cup Final in six games

• Montreal Canadiens vs. St. Louis Blues: Montreal won 1968 and 1969 Cup Finals in four games

MLB Play of the Day

New York Yankees (-130, Max Fried) at Los Angeles Dodgers (+110, Tony Gonsolin)

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