Thunder Still Don't Help Bettors, but Control Series

Happy Tuesday everyone! Hope you all enjoyed your Memorial Day festivities along with a few betting wins on Monday. We didn't do a Tuesday newsletter last week, but we are today, which is free, just like on Monday. So join me in reading about tonight's action!

Thunder One Win Away From NBA Finals; Bettors Still Beware

Despite taking complete control of the Western Conference Finals with a road win in Minnesota to take a 3-1 series lead, the Thunder failed to cover the -3.5 and are now an inconceivable 0-7 ATS on the road this postseason.

On one hand, you have to give them credit for winning close games as they are now 4-3 on the road straight up, winning by 6, 2, 5, and now 2, but on the other hand, you are our a lot of money if you have been betting them on road every game. The 7 road losses against the spread are as many such failures to cover as the past two NBA champions combined despite playing 10 fewer road games up to this point. (More on this in our Trend to Watch below)

So how do you play the Thunder on the road, knowing that they technically don’t have to cover or even win a road game to win the NBA title if they take care of stuff at home? For one, I would stop laying the points. The books have noticed their lack of covering, which is why the line was as low as 3.5 on Monday night (plus they lost by 42 in game 3).

If you still want to back them, lay the juice on the moneyline, but honestly, I would just not bet them on the road. If they finish off the series in 5, the next road game will be in Indiana or New York for NBA Finals Game 3, which won’t be a picnic for them. I would still expect them to be favored on the road, as they have in all games this postseason, but it’ll be small.

Sign up for Wednesday’s premium newsletter to see how we are playing game 5.

Knicks Try to Tie Up Unpredictable Eastern Conference Finals

Go ahead and try to predict what will happen tonight in ECF Game 4. You might be right for 58 minutes and then end up wrong. Welcome to the Eastern Conference Finals, where either team could easily be up or down 3-0.

How important is tonight’s game 4? Only four times in Conference Finals history, and only 13 times in NBA history, has a team comeback from a 3-1 series deficit.

So, how are we playing this one? We are going to the prop market of course.

New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers (-2.5, 220.5)

Predicting the series or even the next play is tough enough, let alone trying to get ahead of game script to leverage the props market, but I do believe there's a bit of a slow reaction opportunity for us to capitalize as Game 5 approaches.

New York made a big move on Sunday night, shifting Mitchell Robinson into the starting lineup over the versatile Josh Hart. The minutes for this duo trended towards each other as you'd guess, but more in favor of a Robinson increase in roll (+9.5 minutes over his postseason average prior) than the detriment of Hart (-2.7).

Time on the court isn't why I'm fading Hart tonight as those minutes could easily be flipped based on a variety of factors (Karl-Anthony Towns doesn't experience an out-of-body fourth quarter, Jalen Brunson stays out of foul trouble, Aaron Nesmith gets hot, etc.). No. Instead, I'm investing based on what the strategy around the change was and how it was executed.

Hart's usage in the offense wasn't much off of what we've come to expect this postseason (6.7% fewer touches per minute, a negligible difference that is well within the range of outcomes for a single game), but the type of usage was very different.

Zero drives. Not a one.

Of course, some of that could be variance, but he was clearly less aggressive on the offensive end. Despite holding the ball for 7.1% more seconds per touch, it never occurred to him to dictate offense himself. His drive numbers are never huge due to the oxygen that Brunson requires to do his thing, but he passed on 41.7% of his drives this regular season and is easily the leader this postseason among New York's regulars at 44.2%.

That ties in with what we saw from the Knicks as a whole on Sunday as they earned their first win of the series -- they assisted on just 38.2% of their buckets, their lowest rate of the season (previous low: 43,2%, against these Pacers on October 25). They didn't pass at a high level ad won the rebound battle for the first time in these three games ... and they won. Why change?

From a macro sense, I worry. The Knicks are low on individual creators and that makes this look more like a survival tactic than one I truly trust to have staying power. When it comes to the micro lens that we are asked to look through for Game 5 or the rest of the series, count me out on Hart's assist projection.

If he's not going to be asked to drive and there's a world in which he losses playing time, you're walking a fine line for him to burn us. Don't get me wrong, he can still be plenty impactful (10 rebounds in Game 4, including arguably the biggest one of the contest), but he seems close to being pigeonholed into a rebounding threat and offensive pawn, more than a creator.

But for game 4 in this small sample size, I've got Hart under 4.5 assists as the best way to leverage the offensive strategy that we saw get the Knicks on the board.

Game 4 Data from BetMGM
Knicks at Pacers (-4.5, 220.5)

• 65% of Bets are on Pacers -4.5 and 55% of Handle is on Knicks +4.5

• 67% of Bets are on over 220.5 and 53% of Handle is on under 220.5

Panthers Fail to Clinch Spot in Cup Finals; Oilers Go for 3-1 Series Lead

The Stanley Cup Eastern Conference Finals got a tad more interesting last night as the Carolina Hurricanes wouldn’t go down without a fight., taking game 4 in Florida with a more aggressive offensive display, outshooting Florida 28-20.

Carolina took it’s first lead of the series and then added empty-netters to win in the ECF for the first time since 2006. Are we concerned holding a 10-1 Panthers ticket? Not yet. Remember, the Panthers put up a dud vs. Toronto with a chance to clinch last round and also blew a 3-0 series lead before winning in game 7 of Stanley Cup Final vs. Edmonton last year.

Out West, the series is not as close as it seems to be. If you take out a 3rd quarter of game 1, in which the Stars scored FIVE goals to rally for the win, Dallas has only scored two other goals the entire series. The 5-goal spurt included three power play goals in 5.5 minutes. That doesn’t happen often. Stuart Skinner, who has been hot and cold in the playoffs the last two seasons, has stopped 58 of 59 shots over the last two games.

Since I don’t like hockey game unders due to empty net situations, I am going to isolate the Dallas team total and take u2.5 goals at +105. Oilers puck line is also in play at +154, but we could also see a 3-2 finish, so going with the u2.5 for Dallas.

Game 4 Data from BetMGM
Stars (+140) at Oilers (-170), 6.5

• 51% of Bets and 61% of Handle is on Stars +140

• 73% of Bets and 78% of Handle is on over 6.5 goals

Trend to Watch

We mentioned above that the Thunder are 0-7 ATS on the road, which totals the amount of failed covers the last two NBA Champions (Celtics 4-4 ATS, Nuggets 6-3 ATS) had combined.

Dating back to 2003, which was when the NBA switched the first round back to a Best-of-Seven series, no eventual NBA Champion failed to cover in 8 or more road games. The worst road ATS record during this time frame was the 2008 Celtics, who went 5-7 ATS on the road. The 2022 Warriors (4-6), 2019 Raptors (5-6), 2016 Cavs (5-6) and 2010 Lakers (5-6) were the only champions to finish under .500 ATS on the road.

MLB Corner

I hesitated saying something in this column yesterday for fear of mushing, but it wasn’t even a sweat with the awful Pirates offense, so we are now 3-0 in MLB since the debut of the column. As you can see with our MLB bets, it’s all about isolating where you feel the strongest edge is: starting pitching, poor offense, hot bats. Find that isolation and go, like we did with the Pirates team total under. We once, back in 2022, rode the Marlins team total under to an 87% hit rate over one summer. Fun times.

Minnesota Twins (-125, 8.5) at Tampa Bay Rays 

For tonight, we are going back to the first five innings look, to isolate the starting pitching.

The Twins have been as good as anyone over the past 3.5 weeks and while I expect that to continue tonight, I prefer to bet against there being much action in the early going on either side.

Joe Ryan and Taj Bradley are set to toe the rubber, two righties who have been anything but vulnerable when facing a handedness disadvantage. Bradley's ISO allowed is 23.6% lower when facing lefties and Ryan has been even better (-26.6%). That helps eliminate our concern for a single swing wrecking our angle and I'm plenty comfortable in betting on both of these starters preventing hits in bulk.

This season, Bradley's xERA is 24.5% lower than his actual rate while Ryan's .303 SLG on second trips through the order points to staff ace material. When it comes to the bats they are facing, they don't exactly profile as the type to fear. Thus far in May, both of these teams are bottom-12 in walk rate and top-12 (highest, worst) in strikeout percentage. They have talent, but they aren't taking the free bases and are plenty capable of going down on strikes at the worst possible time.

Anytime I like a first five under, I like to explore exotic options like a scoreless first two innings or investing in other correlated angles (first three innings, starting pitcher outs, etc.). My primary play will be on the first five under 3.5 runs, but as we get official lineups and a full weather picture as first pitch approaches, I might well be investing in additional ways.

WNBA

Caitlin Clark might be out, but we aren’t. So far on the young season, favorites have covered in 15 of 26 games (57.7%), but we aren’t interested in a spread tonight.

Golden State Valkyries at New York Liberty (-17.5, 162.5)
Natasha Cloud over 20.5 Points + Assists (-104, FD)

Cloud has gone over this line in every game so far this season, with an average of 26.3 PA through three games. She’s been an immediate impact player since joining the Liberty this offseason. On the offensive end, she has a 22.3% usage rate and a 37.7 assist rate. Cloud is also attempting 12 shots per game, which is pretty steady volume for a star-filled lineup.

The biggest risk with this play is a blowout. The Valkyries have been competitive and have the WNBA’s third-best defensive rating, but they have yet to face a team of the caliber of the defending champs.

Road to Omaha is Set

One of my favorite events of the year is upon us as the 64-team field is set for the Road to Omaha. We gave you our initial thoughts yesterday just before the field was set. Now it’s official.

Depending on which state you live in, you will be able to bet on Regional winners and individual games. The lines are not up yet, but here are some quick thoughts on the Regionals.

• For starters, I do not see national seeds Vanderbilt, Texas, Auburn, North Carolina, or LSU having much trouble getting out of the first weekend.

• I do think 3 Arkansas (with Kansas or Creighton), 7 Georgia (Duke/Okie State) and 8 Oregon State (TCU) could have a tough time.

• Other 1 seed hosts that I think could have a problem getting out of the first weekend include FSU (Northeastern/Miss State), Oregon (Arizona), Coastal Carolina (Florida) and UCLA (UC Irvine/ASU). In a bracket pool, I picked Miss State, Arizona, Florida and ASU to advance in those regionals.

Betting Expert Tip of the Week

Stick to Your Strengths, You Don’t Have To Bet the Board

A common misconception is you should bet every game, but you shouldn’t. Stick to your strengths. Know a particular team well? See edges in totals or first-half bets? Bet what you know and what you know well and not everything and anything.

This is the time of year in which everyone’s favorite football is in the rearview mirror and the sports betting board is filled with sports that you normally don’t bet on, whether it’s the French Open, the Triple Crown in Horse Racing or a variety of motorsports. Stick to what you are comfortable with or people you are comfortable tailing.

Oh no, That Did NOT Just Happen!

One thing I avoid doing in sports betting is try and get into the mind of other sports bettors. You have your way of thinking and they have theirs.

Props to this guy, who somehow knew the first basket of last night’s game would be a Jalen Williams’ 3-pointer and cashed a 35-1 ticket. This after Rudy Gobert’s driving dunk was blocked in the opening seconds by Chet Holmgren, who probably earned a thank you card here.

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