State the Obvious: Knicks Must Win Game 2

We’ve reached the end of our first week of “Betting with Bearman” newsletters and I could not be more happy in growing this betting community. Thank you to all who signed up. Next week I am looking to add even more free newsletters during the week.

Today’s edition will cover a variety of sports for a very busy Memorial Day Weekend. Thoughts, trends, nuggets and more! Make sure to look for live bets and updated odds all weekend @dbearmanPFN.

Enjoy!

David

Trend Says Knicks Won’t Remember Game 1

How will the Knicks respond to the crushing defeat of Game 1, blowing a 9-point lead with under a minute left?. According to Inpredictable.com, the Pacers comeback in Game 1 was the 4th-most improbable playoff comeback in the play-by-play era (since 1997). Stick a fork in them, right? Hold on...

In the other 3 more improbable instances 2013 Bulls/Nets, 2013 Warriors/Spurs, 2012 Clippers/Grizzlies), the team that blew the big lead came back and not only won the next game but covered by a wide margin (won by 19, 9, 7). We can go further, as the Pacers had the 5th-most improbable win as well (Game 2 at Cleveland) and guess what? The Cavs rebounded and won game 3 by 22. The Pacers had the 7th-most improbable one as well, in a close out game vs. the Bucks, so there was no next game.

But don’t get too excited Knicks fans. The Warriors, Nets, and Grizzlies all lost the series.

This does make the Knicks laying 6 look pretty good. I am loving the Pacers in 6 (+450) pick from Monday’s newsletter and the Knicks winning and covering tonight is the next step towards that.

Game 2 Data from BetMGM

Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks (-6, 224.5), Friday night

• 61% of Bets on Pacers at +6, 51% of Handle is on Knicks at -6

• 73% of Bets on Over 224.5, 59% of Handle on Under 224.5

For more on this game and a player prop selection, see “Prop of the Day” below.

Thunder Prohibitive Favorite to Win NBA Title and Finish Off T’Wolves

Well that was fun. For the 7th straight year, the Western Conference Finals begin 2-0. 2018 was the last time we got a split before switching hosts. In the previous six 2-0 starts, only one series (Suns-Clippers) even made it to game 6.

In four of those six years, it became 3-0 with all four 2-0 teams covering the spread in game 3 as well. It will come as no surprise that teams starting up 2-0 have gone on to win the series 92.7% of the time (76-6).

Series odds: Thunder -1400, Timberwolves +650

NBA title odds:

Thunder -295
Pacers +550
Knicks +850
Timberwolves +2000

Trend to Watch

Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals is Saturday night. The Thunder (-3) are a road favorite in Minnesota. That dominant Thunder team, who are now -295 to win the NBA title, are 3-2 on the road this postseason but 0-5 ATS as the road favorite. That right, the Thunder have not covered as road favorites this postseason.

Bonus: It’s Memorial Day Weekend, so I am feeling festive. How big is tonight’s Game 2 for the Knicks? In the history of the NBA semifinal round (round before NBA Finals), no team has rallied after losing the first two games of a Best-of-7 at home (0-17). None.

Prop of the Day 

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