Should You Just Bet the Finals MVP?

Is Betting the MVP Market Better Than the Series Price?

We talked yesterday about how you can’t bet the -700 series price for the Thunder and gave out a couple of early series score props that would still give you a piece of the Thunder action and isolate how good they’ve been at home.

Today, we are going to look at another way to bet them or the Pacers. Who is the best player on the Thunder, who just so happens to be the league MVP? Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He’s currently -550 to win the MVP, which is shorter than the -700 series price.

Now there’s a reason for that. There is more than one player on the Thunder, so they could win and someone else wins MVP. But will they? The next priced Thunder player is Jalen Williams at the whopping +3500 price. You could bet one unit on both and still be in better shape than laying -700. Of course, Chet Holmgren could win at +8000, but this is why it’s called gambling.

As far as the Pacers, they are +550 to win the series. Who will be MVP if they win? Not as cut and dry as the league MVP, but Tyrese Haliburton is +750 and Pascal Siakam is +1600. Again, both are better prices than +550 and one of them should be MVP if they win.

Personally, if I am betting the series, I would take SGA/Williams and Haliburton before I take either team.

Updated Series Data, Per Bet MGM
Game 1: Pacers at Thunder (-9.5, 230.5)

• 66% of Bets and 63% of Handle are on Pacers +9.5

• 56% of Bets and 60% of Handle are on Over 230.5

Oilers, Panthers One Day Away From Rematch

We will have preview and picks on game one in Wednesday’s newsletter. Here is updated data, courtesy of our friends at BetMGM

Game 1: Panthers (+110) at Oilers (-130), 6

• 53% of Bets are on Panthers +110 and 54% of Handle are on Oilers -130

• 70% of Bets and 72% of Handle on over 6 goals

• 67% of Bets and 58% of Handle on Oilers -1.5.

Trend to Watch

We are on the eve of the Stanley Cup Final and 2 days away from the NBA Finals. When all the rest is over, they will actually get on the ice and court and play. So how important is that first game? There will be wild swings in series prices after each game, which can be fun to bet if you get in on the right price. Here is some data that might help you decide when to jump in.

In the Stanley Cup Final, teams that win game 1, go on to win the Cup 76.5% of the time. It goes up to 84% if it’s the home team winning game 1. Believe it or not, winning on the road for game 1 doesn’t mean as much as you’d think, as teams only go on to win the Cup 56.5% (13 of 23) of the time up 1-0 on the road.

The numbers are lower across the board in the NBA. In the NBA Finals, teams that win game 1 go on to win the title 70.5% of the time and 78.3% of the time if starting at home up 1-0. What about winning game 1 on the road? Those teams have gone on to win 8 of 18 series in the Finals (44.4%).

MLB Corner

Texas Rangers (+114, Tyler Mahle) at Tampa Bay Rays (-135, Drew Rasmussen)

You might be aware that Drew Rasmussen has been good this season, but it’s unlikely that you fully appreciate his dominance. The converted utility pitcher has gotten at least 15 outs without allowing more than a single earned run in seven of his 11 starts this season, shutting down rallies before they have a chance to get started (1-3 hitters: .155 batting average).

He doesn’t miss bats a ton, but with a single digit average launch angle and a sub-6% barrel rate, his sparkling numbers very much pass the smell test.

He’s not backed by the most explosive offense in the bigs, but the Rays rank in the 80th percentile or better in both strike swing rate and batting average with men on base. We aren’t asking for much in the way of support, a few runs should do it.

His opposing number has elite counting metrics this season, but Tyler Mahle has been relying on a BABIP that is nearly 60 points below his career baseline and that is the reason his xERA is flirting with 4.00. His production doesn’t appear to be overly stable and when you pair that with a very inconsistent offense, the Rangers aren’t a bad target these days.

Last Week

• Two games with 8+ runs

• Four games with two or fewer runs

I don’t mind the first five innings line or the game line, but I’m in the business of trying to maximize edges. You could lay the 1.5 runs (+154 at DraftKings), though that isn’t something I ever do with home teams, understanding that they could trade a run for an out late and burn us without a chance in the bottom of the ninth to earn us the cover.

When I like a home team to control the game, I often go to a market that is more available on DraftKings than other places – “Rays not to bat in the ninth inning (+105)”. For home favorites, this often splits the price difference between moneyline and runline, a spot I like to be. If Rasmussen mows down the Rangers like I think he is capable of, a few runs puts us in good position and with the fourth best bullpen ERA supporting him, I’ll take this plus-money play to be my foundational piece on a busy day across the diamond. Why the price difference? We now lose on a walk off winner of any kind. That’s a pain, but given this matchup, I don’t mind losing a winning path for this increase in odds — I’m not making this bet with the thought being that they can pull the game out of the fire late.

On the WNBA Court

After a night off, the WNBA is back with three games tonight, all of which count towards the Commissioner’s Cup, an in-season tournament, highlighted by the 7-0 Minnesota Lynx hosting the 5-2 Phoenix Mercury.

Phoenix Mercury at Minnesota Lynx (-12.5, 158.5)

The Lynx have that 7-0 record, yes. But they are also 2-5 against the spread, including 0-5 in the last 5 games. This includes failing to cover the 3.5 against tonight’s opponent, when they won by 3 at Phoenix last week. They also have failed to cover both double digit spreads this season. As for the Mercury, they are 3-1 ATS on as an underdog this season. I am rolling with the 12.5 points.

16 Teams Left on the Road to Omaha

What fun first round on the Road to Omaha. Outside of the Gators losing, the rest was exciting baseball with some monumental upsets and almost a historic one. Here are the updated odds with thoughts on who to play. We will have deeper series previews later in the week.

LSU +320
Arkansas +390
Tennessee +600
UNC +700
Auburn +1100
FSU +1300
Oregon State +1300
Coastal Carolina +1500
UCLA +2000
Duke +2600
Louisville +2800
UTSA +3700
Arizona +4000
Miami +4200
West Virginia +6000
Murray State +11000

Initial thoughts:

• We liked LSU at +550 going into the tournament and if though they barely survived, they are still a team I would take to win the whole thing. Sometimes you need that adversity to get over the hump to win that title.

• Four of the top five shortest odds belong to the SEC teams. We already said we are sticking with LSU. Next for me would be Tennessee to repeat. They’ve done it before and can do it again.

• UNC (+700) is scary good and not getting the love they deserve. We took them at +1000 to begin the event and not backing down now. I think they are in the semis when all is said and done

• Further down the board, don’t sleep on Coastal at +1500. They’ve lost once since April 1 and dominated a tough regional that featured ECU and Florida.

• I don’t necessarily like UCLA at +2000, but it’s hard not to like their path. They get UTSA in Supers and would get Duke/Murray State winner to start Omaha.
  

Oh no, That Did NOT Just Happen!

It’s been Death, Taxes and Oklahoma winning the Women’s College World Series. The last time Oklahoma did not win the WCWS, we were all in offices and Patrick Mahomes didn’t have a Super Bowl title.

Well, college softball will crown a new champion as Texas Tech slayed the dragon last night and knocked off the 4-time defending Champions. The Red Raiders, the 12th seed in the event, opened at 2500 to win the tournament.

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