Rodgers Joins the Steelers; Chris “The Bear” Fallica Joins Newsletter

Just when you think the week is going quietly, you get an OT game to start the Stanley Cup Finals, a feud between billionaires and a crazy comeback by the Pacers to win Game one of the NBA Finals. Oh yeah, not to miss a second of the news cycle, Aaron Rodgers shocked no one, signing with the Steelers.

Before we get into the nitty gritty of what to bet this weekend, we are going to start with why it doesn’t matter to the betting world that Rodgers is back and in Pittsburgh. Sure, you had to listen to 27 straight minutes of it on national radio, but the books don’t care. We explain why.

We also kick off a new segment, the Bear-Necessities, which will be a weekly one-on-one with a betting influencer. We start the series with an interview with Fox Sports Chris “The Bear” Fallica.

The newsletter is out a little later today as the Elementary School Graduation flew over the listed total, which was easy money.

Happy betting!

Rodgers Makes His Call, But Does it Matter?

Aaron Rodgers did what was long expected of him, signed a deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The deal was the least surprising news of the day, well maybe second to the Elon-Trump feud.

Anyhow, the prices for the Steelers futures ahead of the Rodgers signing were:

Super Bowl: 45-1
AFC: 22-1
AFC North: 6-1
Win Total: 8.5
Week 1 at Jets: -3

The Steelers prices after the Rodgers signing:

Super Bowl: 45-1
AFC: 22-1
AFC North: 6-1
Win Total: 8.5
Week 1 at Jets: -3

Yeah, no change. That doesn’t mean Aaron Rodgers is not an upgrade over Mason Rudolph. Simple put, according to BetMGM’s John Ewing “This was priced into all markets.” 

Everyone assumed this was going to happen, so the books weren’t going to risk taking a loss on longer Mason Rudolph prices. So what would’ve Rodgers been worth in terms of the markets if it wasn’t priced in and how much of an impact will we see from No 12?

A similar answer… not much. Rodgers' Packers went 5-6 outright as a favorite in 2022 and his Jets mirrored that mark last season. We will throw 2023 out like he did. Over the past three seasons, only once (2022 Raiders) has a team been favored in 10+ games and posted a lower winning percentage than those Rodgers led money pits.

So is there an impact to this signing on the betting landscape? Only if the market continues to fear the potential we continue to associate with him. The lack of movement in the Super Bowl odds hints that the temperature in sportsbooks is cooling on his impact and could limit our profitability in betting against his teams that simply don't carry the win equity that sportsbooks want them to, but the lack of change in odds is mostly because this move has felt inevitable for the better part of four months and, as noted, was priced in.

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