Panthers, Oilers Fight For the Cup; How To Play the Toss Up

After some well earned time off, the Stanley Cup Final begins tonight, one night ahead of the NBA Finals. Five of the next six nights will feature a game in one of the championship series and we have you covered with Betting with Bearman.

In addition to daily game previews and different ways to bet the championship rounds, we also have this powerfully deep betting guide for the Finals produced by my partner in crime, Kyle Soppe.

It includes extensive research, starting 5 analysis, props to watch, and a ton more. It’s free for all our paid members, and if you’re still on the fence about joining us, you can get the guide AND a free month of premium access to Betting with Bearman for just $9. You’ll love it and feel confident going into the Finals. Check it out!

Panthers Renew Quest For Back-to-Back Cups in Game 1 in Edmonton

After a week off, the Florida Panthers renew their quest for rare back-to-back Stanley Cup titles, but face a familiar foe, the Edmonton Oilers, who took them to a full 7 games last season.

In Monday’s newsletter, we talked about me playing it to go 7 games by taking the Panthers in 7 (+500) and Oilers in 7 (+450), which would give you better odds than the series going 7 (+200). But what about Game 1 tonight in Edmonton?

Game 1: Panthers (+110) at Oilers (-130), 6

Both these teams have the firepower to score and have outstanding goalies, which automatically scares me with either side of the the game total. If we isolate it down a little bit to the first period, we find a trend that both teams have exploited lately. There has been goals in 10 of the 11 first periods for the Oilers, with there being 2+ goals in seven of those 10 games. The Panthers have seen first-period goals in 10 of their past 13 first periods and 2+ in seven of those. I think there will be scoring early, so we will go with the over 1.5 goals in the opening period of Game 1.

Updated Betting Data from BetMGM

• 52% of Bets and 58% of Handle on Oilers -130

• 72% of Bets and 67% of Handle on over 6 goals

• 67% of Bets and 61% of Handle on Oilers -1.5

Pacers, Thunder One Day Away

The NHL goes first, but then the NBA Finals take center stage on Thursday with Game 1. In earlier newsletters this week, we went over multiple ways to play the series and not pay the -700 price tag on the Thunder if you like them. This includes different series markets and MVP markets. Now we will talk Game 1 since we will not have a newsletter on Thursday.

Game 1: Pacers at Thunder (-9, 231), Pacers +320, Thunder -410

Entering this series, it appears reasonably clear that the Pacers are going to try to establish the tempo. We can argue as to if they will be able to do so, but as the team at a talent deficit, they need to force the game to fit into a very specific box if they are going to compete for 48 minutes.

If we are taking that for granted, we open up the door to some rotation creativity. Whether it is Oklahoma City slowing or Indiana racing, don’t both teams need their top athletes on the court?

I’ve already discussed my concerns around Isaiah Hartenstein within the player profiles – one-big lineups project as more friendly in this spot than most, as loading up on rebounding upside isn’t as called for in this matchup.

As for the Pacers, not only is Turner seemingly allergic to the paint (more 3PA than FTA against the Knicks with 44% of his shots coming from distance), but Obi Toppin and Ben Sheppard are versatile threats that bring to life Indiana’s hopeful pace a bit cleaner, not to mention defensive matchups on the other side.

For the postseason, Turner’s rebound rate is down from 12.2% to 9.4%, a difference that makes an even greater defense if he is giving away minutes. He’s averaging 11% fewer rebounder chances during the postseason and with our money on Chet Holmgren to lead this series in rebounds, this is a correlated fade.

I’m not confident that either Turner or Hartenstein reaches six boards, let alone both hovering in that neighborhood.

Pick:

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