Betting with Bearman: Knicks Not Done; Can Thunder Do Something They Haven’t Done Yet??

Happy Memorial Day to all and especially to those who served! As you get those grills started, welcoming the unofficial start to summer, we have some sports betting analysis, thoughts and picks for this festive day.

Welcome to week 2 for the “Betting with Bearman” newsletter. For over two decades, both at ESPN and PFSN, I have been involved in the betting space, as a content creator, writer, editor, manager and worked in the business of betting with various sportsbook partners.

In this newsletter, I want to share those experiences with you, the reader, in hopes of creating a betting community, where everyone comes away with enough knowledge and strategies to become a more rounded sports bettor.

Speaking of, let me personally welcome and thank our earliest Founder’s Tier members in Adam, Kaplan, John, Matt, Eric, Mike and Jackson!

If you follow along like them, apply the lessons, and stay consistent, you’ll feel the ROI over the long term — not because I gave you a “can’t-miss” pick, but because you became a sharper bettor.

Enjoy!

Can the Thunder (-3.5) Win on the Road to Take Control of Western Conference Finals?

The Thunder have looked unstoppable at times, especially at home, but have also looked vulnerable, especially on the road, as we saw in the 42-point loss to the Timberwolves in Game 3. 

OKC is now 0-6 ATS on the road in the postseason despite winning 3 of them. How surprised should we be? The Thunder covered the spread an NBA-high 68% of the time this season, but most of the damage was at home as their 57% cover percentage on the road was 6th among playoff teams. Technically they don’t have to cover any road games as long as they continue dominating at home, but it sure would help the Thunder to show up on the road to win that NBA title. 

Odds to Win the NBA Title
Thunder -255
Pacers +500
Knicks +1000
Timberwolves +1100

Series prices:
Thunder (-800), Timberwolves (+550)
Pacers (-230), Knicks (+190)

 As far as Game 4 goes, the Thunder are laying 3.5 with a total of 218.5. 

Game 4: Oklahoma City (-3.5, 218.5) at Minnesota Timberwolves

We've got three games that were decided by 15+ points in this series, making definitive claims a little difficult to make due to game scripts being forced to adjust in a major way. That said, the Thunder offensive shooting trends (below) are interesting as they mirror the general direction of the NBA in this analytics era.

Whether it is Minnesota pushing Oklahoma City back or the Thunder simply being willing to take the first available look as opposed to showing patience (not a rare strategy against a strong defense), the title favorites have seen their shot diet shift.

Reasonable minds can disagree if this is right or not, but I'm not here to sell you on that. Instead, I'm going to listen to what the team is telling us with their actions. Fewer interior opportunities means that Isaiah Hartenstein (yet to attempt a triple this postseason and he went without a single make during the regular season) is at risk of not only losing touches, but potentially playing time (Jaylin Williams and Kenrich Williams aren't heavily used players, but if this pivot is intentional, that could change).

Hartenstein's next made free throw will be his first in this series. His front court touch count (17.3) is barely over half of what it was this regular season (32.3) and his average time per touch is down 8.4%. There are some sets being run through him, but he's being asked to catch and keep things moving, not to evaluate the defense in a major way.

His scoring pops move with juice by the sportsbook, but if you can get 8.5, that's the number I like to go under, even if you have to swallow some juice (-130 is as high as I'd go). Normally, for me, the juice change normally makes two similar numbers (in this case, under 8.5 points or 7.5), but in a spot like this, where the player rarely gets to the line and is never a three point threat, getting an even point total with the hook is critical. 

Picks for Game 4: Hartenstein u8.5 points (-135) and lean Thunder -3.5

Knicks Turn to Rally, Series Far From Over

Game 4: New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers (-2.5, 221.5)
The Knicks again rallied from 20 points down, this time to save their season and steal Game 3 in Indy. It’s really hard to handicap this series as each team has blown leads and either team could be up 3-0 or down 3-0. 

I stated from the beginning that I have the Pacers winning and took them winning in six games, so the Knicks game 3 win actually helps that ticket and avoids the sweep. If you think this is the beginning of a Knicks run, the +190 beckons you, but you also missed it much higher before game 3. 

No early play on game 4 just yet as we will wait to see what the prop market looks like on Tuesday. 

Florida Panthers Go For 3rd Straight Stanley Cup Finals Appearance

We said it in this very column one week ago that the play was a Panthers-Oilers finals rematch, which could be bet at +220 last Monday. And that if you didn’t have a Panthers Cup ticket (I have +1000) that you should still take them at +230. A week later and we are closer than ever to cashing those tickets. The Panthers have thoroughly dominated the Hurricanes, outscoring them 16-4 in the three games, becoming only the 6th team in NHL history, and first since 1981 Islanders, to start the Conference Finals/NHL Semifinals with three straight games of 5+ goals. 

Odds to Win the NHL Title
Panthers -105
Oilers +150
Stars +650
Hurricanes +3500

Series prices:
Panthers (-3500), Hurricanes (+1500)
Oilers (-330), Stars (-+275)

As far as Game 4 (Hurricanes +150, Panthers -180) in Florida, I see no reason why things will change from what we have seen through three games. Yes, the Panthers put up a dud at home in Game 6 vs. Toronto while trying to close the Maple Leafs out, but have also scored 22 goals in 12 periods since. If you don’t want to lay the -180 and you think this series is long over, Panthers puck line of +145 (to win by 2 goals) would be in play, considering each of their past six wins have covered this. One thing I would NOT do: I would not play any unders with this Panthers offense that can score 5 goals in a 9-min span. 

The last team to make the Stanley Cup Final in three straight years was the 1983-85 Edmonton Oilers.

Trend to Watch 

Not sure I can give a better one than the Thunder being 0-6 ATS on the road in the postseason, but, it’s a holiday, so why not??

• Western Conference Finals: three games, all decided by 15+ points

• Eastern Conference Finals: three games, all decided by 6 points or less. Per the NBA, this is the first time a Conference Finals has had each of the first 3 games decided by 6 points or less since 2009 and just the 6th time in any round since 1995.

That 2009 series was between the Lakers and Nuggets, in which the Lakers won game 1 by 2,  Nuggets won game 2 by 3 and Lakers won game 3 by 6. Game 4? Nuggets by 19. 

MLB Play of the Day

It’s Memorial Day, which means plenty of day baseball! But our play will be under the lights in Arizona. Going to say it only because it won’t last, but the” Betting with Bearman” column is 2-0 in MLB so far… just saying. 

Pirates (+160  Andrew Heaney) at Diamondbacks (-190 Ryne Nelson), 9.5
The Diamondbacks have dropped five straight, losing in a variety of ways. From their key relievers getting beat up to a lack of clutch hits from their sticks. They aren't exactly an easy team to trust these days, but they should be able to keep these Bucco bats quiet.

Ryne Nelson has a 2.45 ERA over the past month and continues to see his ground ball rate rise, a rare trait to get the ability to back these days. That skill isn't going to play in all spots, but this one has my eye with the Pirates ranking 25th in launch angle, 29th in wOBA, and 30th in ISO.

That's hard to do with Oneil Cruz on the roster -- it speaks to their lack of reliable depth and with both of Arizona's primary relievers coming off of a day of rest, this game could well be one of those perfect spots where it's only the starter (Nelson: .151 batting average against with the bases empty) and the trust bullpen arms that handle most, if not all, of the heavy lifting.

Pittsburgh has the third highest called strike rate in the bigs this season, something that could allow Nelson to rack up the innings. I don't mind him in the props markets, but I'm going to elect to fade the visitors instead. During this losing streak, the 'Backs have allowed just 3.6 runs per game through nine innings -- those games came against the Dodgers and Cardinals, offenses that grade as far superior to what they have to deal with this evening.

Pick: Pirates under 3.5 runs

Recapping the Weekend

How did we do? Here is a quick recap of how this newsletter did on the weekend (Friday’s newsletter) and everything else we know about the sports betting world over the last few days. 

• Hit the Indianapolis 500 winner, Alex Palou at +550!!

• Went 1-1 in Friday’s WNBA action

• We hit on the Diamondbacks First Five  innings to go to 2-0 in MLB plays last week.

• Didn’t hit any golf outrights, but got Bud Cauley home for a top-20 ticket at +225.

• Didn’t hit on NASCAR outrights, but cashed a William Byron top-5 ticket at +105

 What else happened this weekend?

• Ben Griffin, who opened 60-1 last week, took home the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial. The Tour moves to Jack’s Place at the Memorial, where Scottie Scheffler is a +280 favorite to win. Xander Schauffele (+1400), Collin Morikawa (+1600) and Justin Thomas (+1800) are next on the oddsboard as Rory McIlroy elected to skip the event. My initial thoughts on the event are below. 

• Ross Chastain crashed in practice on Saturday, missed qualifying and had to start from the 40th and last spot in the Coca-Cola 600 on Sunday. Have no fear as the 35-1 longshot became the first driver to win a Cup race from last place since 1969. 

• As per the norm in Monaco, the pole sitter and favorite won the race from the front. This time it was Lando Norris, who went off as a -150 favorite from the top spot. 

• Alex Palou (+550) took home the milk in Indy. And you knew that was going to happen, reading the “Betting with Bearman” newsletter on Friday.

• The biggest bet we saw this weekend involved the Knicks-Pacers last night, in which one bettor had $220,000 to win $200,000 on the under 225.5, which was no sweat as it ended 206.  

What Is On Deck This Weekend? 

No shortage of sports this weekend as May turns to June. In addition to the NBA and NHL playoffs continuing, golf is at Jack Nicklaus’ place for a signature event, the French Open is underway, softball heads to the College World Series and the Road to Omaha begins in baseball:

• Scheffler is the +280 favorite heading into the Memorial, the second consecutive week he is sub 300. It’s hard to not have Scottie on your card somewhere, but my advice has been and will continue to be: wait for him to maybe get a slow start Thursday and bet him live and longer odds. I did that at the PGA Championship and cashed and grabbed him at +1800 on Friday this past week and by Saturday afternoon, he was T-3. He didn’t win, but I was loving the +1800 value I had on him. He is the defending champion here and has finished 3-3-T22 in his other three appearances. A top-5 at -175 isn’t bad either. Other initial thoughts (full Memorial betting card will be in Wednesday’s newsletter).

  • I do not like betting on Patrick Cantlay ever, but I can’t let my personal bias stop me from telling you that he has won the Memorial twice (2019, 2021) and has a T-3 and 4th place finish at Muirfield Village. I won’t place him at +2000, but a top-10 at +160 has caught my eye.

  • A course that demands elite driving distance, good approach play and scrambling around fast greens is a perfect fit for Xander Schauffele (+1400), who hasn’t won here but has five finishes in the top 14 in his last six appearances.

  • Viktor Hovland won here two years ago and followed it up with a T-15 last year. 

  • Elite ball strikes are always in play at Muirfield Village, so I will be taking close looks at Morikawa, Conners, Berger and Straka as the props come out later this week. 

• The French Open is underway at Roland Garros. Carlos Alcaraz (+105) and Aryna Sabalenka (+240) are the favorites on the Men’s and Women’s side respectively.

• UFC returns this week with Fight Night out of the APEX in Las Vegas on Saturday night. The main event is a Women’s Flyweight Bout between Erin Blanchfield (-245) and Marcee Barber (+200). Picks and thoughts will come in Friday’s newsletter.  

• By the time this email reaches your inbox, one of my favorite events (the Road to Omaha) will have its bracket out. For now, I am looking at the listed odds and have the following thoughts

  • Vanderbilt at 13-1 is great value considering they just won the SEC Tournament and very well could be the top overall seed. If not the top seed, they will be a top-3 seed and are getting sixth-shortest odds. 

  • Oddsmakers don't really trust the ACC outside of Tournament Champion UNC (+1000). FSU is +3500 and regular season champion Georgia Tech is +4000. Of course, the conference has one baseball title in the last 70 years. UNC could have some sneaky value as they are the best ACC team in my opinion. 

  • Coastal Carolina (+2500) has the shortest odds of any non-major conference team. They won it all in 2016 and are always a tough out. 

  • Teams that are hot heading into the multi-week tourney include Florida (+3500), Coastal Carolina (+2500, one loss since April 1), Southern Miss (+9000), Northeastern (+8000, one loss since March 23)

Betting Expert Tip of the Week

Stick to Your Strengths, You Don’t Have To Bet the Board
A common misconception is you should bet every game, but you shouldn’t. Stick to your strengths. Know a particular team well? See edges in totals or first-half bets? Bet what you know and what you know well and not everything and anything. 

This is the time of year in which everyone’s favorite football is in the rearview mirror and the sports betting board is filled with sports that you normally don’t bet on, whether it’s the French Open, the Triple Crown in Horse Racing or a variety of motorsports. Stick to what you are comfortable with or people you are comfortable tailing. 

Oh no, That Did NOT Just Happen !

This section will be reserved for our favorite Bad Beats, backdoor covers or general nonsense we saw. If you see one, send me a DM at @davidbearmanPFN on Twitter. I can’t possibly see them all. 

As a big golf bettor, I always look for 2 to 3 tournament-long (72 holes) matchups to jump on and will dive into the individual round matchups on Saturday after I see two rounds of action.  Usually I pick 2-3 in Round 3 and 2-3 in Sunday’s final round. This bettor here, violating my rule of no more than 4 in a parlay, hit a 14-leg matchup parlay AND did a Round Robin with them! To the tune of over $250K! 

I will say that if you have more than 4 in a parlay, round robin is the way to go. There will be a betting tip on how to do this later, but the TL:DR part is: you take your plays and you rotate them into a bunch of smaller parlays, pairing all of them together in a round robin style. Even though I would never consider doing a 14-matchup parlay, I salute you Mr. $250K man!

Newsletter Coming Tuesday (What to Expect) - Our First Tuesday edition!

• Thoughts and Picks on Tuesday’s main action

• Data on where the money and bets are

• Nuggets to make you more informed

• CWS breakdown with bracket out

• Wednesday and Friday will be for premium members only — upgrade now!

Want more? Subscribe now!